Hello all,
Apologies for the miss of May for the The Brick. I had certain transactions that were inordinately time consuming and required continued focus. As I worked to make sense of the changing dynamics in our market in between, I started to hear the crickets coming.
When a Realtor hears crickets, there are basically two options. Double down and lean in or succumb. To succumb nets out to finding another profession. I’ve worked too hard in my trade and have children to support, so lean in I did.
I rustled up business to fill the space crickets were readying to find comfy. I have also opened channels for additional revenue streams as I believe that is prudent, regardless. Consultative marketing and branding, project management and property management are my branches – should that be of interest to anyone.
The crickets moved on and I remain active, but not all are. In the days ahead, there will most likely be a continued “weeding out” in our industry with experts remaining, as projected in the October, 2022 issue of The Brick. Also included in the October, 2022 issue was a breakdown of what 7% interest rate translates to in buying power at varied price points. As we now appear on return to that space, this information can also be referenced in that edition here.
We do not appear to be getting a break just yet. There were likely a subset of “Year of Fear” buyers (also known as 2020 purchasers) that may have been reconsidering their upstate residence once Covid settled down. Even though upstate has also been hit with wildfire pollutants, it is no match to the historic levels NYC has been enduring.
Will thoughts of selling off the upstate house be once again shelved due to NYC vulnerabilities? Time will tell, but I am not banking on an “upstate home sell off” near term.
In this issue:
- Latest Inventory and Realtor “Weeding Out”
- Latest Feature Article with Yours Truly
- The Cyclical Real Estate Market in our Region
- Luxury Spotlights
- Traditional Neighborhood Developments
- The Numbers – Average and Median Sale Prices, Closed Sales, Volume, etc..
- Preparing for Highest Return on Sale
- The Days Ahead
Here we go…
Inventory
There are less buyers than there were, but there are still a healthy amount of buyers in the market. Multiple offers still happen on certain properties. Painfully low inventory fueled primarily by sellers opting to maintain low interest rates with existing mortgages has been a primary driver for the continued sellers market. It’s not pretty out there, but many of my clients have thankfully been getting into deals.
On the upside, inventory has realized a 15% increase in the past week alone. That’s a noticeable and encouraging jump. To keep it in perspective, though, as of May 31st, we were still down 62% in inventory versus our last normal trending May in 2019, per Mid Hudson MLS. This nets out to 431 available listings as of May 31, 2023 versus 1149 in May, 2019. As of today, June 8, there are now 513 active listings on the market in Dutchess County.
Continued upward inventory momentum is sorely needed with this a glimpse of correction hope. I projected on Instagram last month that June would realize an increase in activity. I stand by that projection, which does appear to be showing signs of fruition.
More on what April and May should have been in “Cyclical Market Patterns” commentary further down. I predict Fall Market will have more bustle this year than Spring Market with sellers on the fence or overpriced getting real about selling before Winter sets in. We are in an adjusting market with wildcards in the sidelines. Spring Market 2024 has the aptitude to be a much different market.
Realtor “Weeding Out”
To share further perspective on my Realtor “weeding out” projection, consider this example which shares similar circumstances throughout much of New York State:
There are just over 1,000 licensed real estate agents in Dutchess County, per Dutchess County Association of Realtors. May, 2023 reported 431 active listings, per Mid Hudson MLS. Let’s roll with 513 active listings as of today, June 8, which is 1036 transaction opportunities between buy and sell (as of end of May it was only 862) While not realistic, let’s just say in no instance did a realtor represent both buy and sell.
That means there is not even one transaction opportunity for every licensed real estate agent in Dutchess County. There is no logical way there aren’t a subset of agents without work and hearing crickets right now.
Days on Market
“Days on Market” is defined by the date an active listing has a status change from active (which includes accepted offer) to either contingent or pending (in contract.). The YTD average is up 4% from 75 days in May, 2022 to current 78 days on market, per Mid Hudson MLS. In such a tight inventory squeeze, days on market increase is most indicative of overpricing. Overpriced listings have and continue to expire or reduce in price in order to sell, even in this sellers market.
Considering the instability of interest rates and low inventory levels, if you are thinking about selling, the market is still ripe. Buyers are very anxious to lock in. Certain buyers are now realizing a tight time frame to have children settled in before school starts. Not all buyers are working around school schedules, but June has historically been an important month in real estate as further discussed below.
Latest Feature Article “In Flux: Summer 2023 Housing Market”
“We asked expert Sandi Park with Coldwell Banker Realty and Global Luxury Specialist….”
Upstate House, published by Chronogram Media, sought expert opinion on the market and so I chimed in. Click here for the most recent feature article.
The Seasons and the Cyclical Market
As in any other industry, real estate has an underlying cyclical market. We have lived in one long Spring Market since Covid with some hiccups in 2022 and over this past Winter indications of cyclical return. Market cycles vary throughout the country. For example, there are areas that are most intense in sales during winter months when historically it is the slowest in real estate sales in the Hudson Valley.
Historically, Spring Market takes the lead in our area in transaction volume. This is usually a time with lots of buzz in the air. I have to say, that “buzz” didn’t really exist in April/May 2023. It was more of a daily MLS watch for houses dripping on the market. Spring Market starts in March with height in April/May/early June. Generally, toward the end of June and into July are when listings passed over during Spring Market reduce in price. This year, April and May had a lackluster “buzz” of Spring Market. However, I expect higher levels of inventory to continue as we press further into June with hopes a delayed buzz kicks in as Realtors love that Spring Market buzz. Feel a little robbed, quite frankly.
July and August generally are slower months in the Hudson Valley. There are certain areas that do not realize as much of a decrease in sales in the summer months as they tend to be destination areas. Rhinebeck, Hudson, Woodstock and New Paltz along with their “nearby” towns are examples of areas not hit as noticeably with summer slow down in our area.
September-early November is historically the second busiest time for sales in our area. As we have had a delayed start for Spring Market, Fall Market may have more gas in the jets than usual this year. I expect sellers on the perch and those that expired and did not yet re-list will surface for a push before Winter market sets in. Mid-November sales tend to taper off with an awakening beginning in January-February. December and January are historically the slowest months of the year in our area in real estate.
In current market conditions, a non-luxury residential property that has been on the market for more than 30 days is considered a “sitter.” During the height of Covid frenzy, it took 7 days, tops, for a property to enter the sitter bucket, unless there was a predetermined “consideration window” established out of the gate with the listing as I have done with all of my listings. If your property has been on the market for more than 30 days and the desire is to sell, it may be prudent to consider a more aggressive pricing and marketing stance to catch the remains of Spring Market.
Testimonial
“….It was seamless and it is still seamless. If you need someone to sell your house and make things happen, then you need to hire Sandi Park.”
E. Kutner
See Full One Minute Video Testimonial Here
LATEST LUXURY SPOTLIGHT
Living on vacation in Rhinebeck!
$1,595,000
This historic beauty rests on over four bucolic acres less than a mile from the heart of the Village of Rhinebeck. The property includes two barns – an 1880 barn as well as a recreation/3 bay garage barn with upstairs studio built in 2015 by Art of Building.
This 1880 home has enjoyed full interior updates and renovation, also by Art of Building. Five bedrooms with one on the main level offering dual primary bedroom potential, if desired. The maple floors on the main level are historic. 3040 square feet, not including basement with finished storage area and utilities.
The property is a recreational haven. Landsman Kill, a grade 1A trout stream, winds past lush landscape on the property. Perfectly balanced mix of rolling and level groomed sward dotted by historic trees. Heated in ground pool. Hot tub. The recreation barn currently hosts ping pong, pool table and lounge with upper level studio.
Central air. Municipal water. Bertazzoni gas cooktop/oven. Bosch dishwasher and refrigerator. Custom built mudroom and pantry located conveniently off kitchen with additional outdoor access.
To come is to stay.
My client loved the historic windows in the attic of this home. She wanted to integrate them into the home rather than have them hidden.
Millbrook and Chatham Luxury
There are two listings in the $2,500,000-$3,000,000 range that also currently have my eye. I did a video at each. I didn’t realize my screen protector was shot, so the first few seconds with my intro has a little blur.
The first treasure is in Millbrook with the second in Chatham. Both are beautiful homes with esquisite properties. Since they are not my listings, I did not have a professional video done, but rather my own take on each property. You can see them below. I’m warm on them both with Chatham having attention also for its proximity to the Taconic, cute village, Ghent and Albany.
 Millbrook $2,850,000 See Full Listing Drive by an orchard to this secluded beauty with mountain views. Unexpected perks of space. See “Sandi’s Take” Video |  Chatham $2,495,000. See Full Listing I personally really like this house and believe there could be opportunity with pricing. See “Sandi’s Take” Video |
Ultra Luxury
The latest entrant into the ultra luxury market and the current highest priced listing between Dutchess, Ulster and Columbia counties is in Columbia County for $25,000,000. Town of Gallatin. Pine Plains Schools.
See Full Listing
Traditional Neighborhood Developments
Multi-generational living
Traditional neighborhood developments, or “TND” are a subset of an architectural movement called New Urbanism. They are magnets for multi-generational living and can be found around the country with Celebration in Florida perhaps ringing a bell. TND’s often have a commercial component mixed in with residential.
They really aren’t a new concept. Many homes were built in this community based/sidewalk living fashion prior to WWII. They are back and reinvented in answer to suburban sprawl, which made cars top priority and garages showcased in equal measure to the front door. In traditional neighborhood developments, garages are most often tucked behind residences in alleys.
I was brought to Dutchess County from Westchester by the developers of this 102 door community in Red Hook. I worked with the developers and their talented staff of engineers, architects, etc as sales and marketing director during pre-launch.
The developers sent me to Florida, a TND Mecca, to visit numerous Traditional Neighborhood Developments and traditional subdivisions to enhance my existing experience and knowledge to heighten contributions on layouts, amenities and other facets of preparation along with establishing launch marketing and branding. Fun side task: I helped name the streets in Tradition after spending time with the town historian (lovely person, btw)
Working with such highly talented professionals was an incredible experience. I have worked in new construction throughout my career, but this was an intense boot camp I will always cherish.
Should you have any questions on traditional neighborhood developments or wish to explore remaining site and residence options, reach out.
Also, if you live in Tradition and have interest in selling, I know the community like the back of my hand. I am very well qualified to represent your sale.
Take a one minute walk around Tradition with me to see an example of a TND
The Numbers
…the only increase in all of these stats is the YTD median selling price, up 1%
Capturing Attention
It is fact that 96% of buyers search online before contacting a Realtor. The first stop are the pictures. The main/first shot is key. That picture either captures a potential buyer for continued look through the remaining carousel of pictures or exit with scroll to the next property.
If the pictures satisfy a buyers interest, then they move on to read the copy. In my experience, the copy and the pictures should work together to tell a story – all backed by solid pricing. That combination, that marriage between sound pricing and effective marketing, makes the phone ring or messages come.
The cracked foundation pictured was the first picture (main shot) for a listing. I have seen snow pictures in July, houses sideways, toilets (unless the toilet thanks you in five different languages, there is no reason to have a solo toilet in a picture and even if it demonstrated such fluency, I would question having a solo toilet in the shots.)
I’m not suggesting to hide issues, but pictures truly are an important part of marketing a home. If you plan to sell your home, perhaps explore the work of the Realtor you are considering. Look at photos. Read their copy for other properties they have listed. Are they on social media? If they are not active in social media, that should be a red flag as those platforms can be leveraged to enhance exposure to your sale. If you see pictures with snow in July – RUN!
The below link a really good example of how much lighting and professional photography can make a difference. Both listings are the same house. Neither were my listing and both actually expired, but still presented a good opportunity to demonstrate the point.
The lower priced listing was pre-renovations, but imagine yourself as a buyer looking at how dark the pictures in the earlier listing are. The updated house has renovations, but focus on the difference lighting makes between the two. Check them both out here.
Before and After:
Preparing for Sale and Higher Returns
SEE THE 30 SECOND BEFORE AND AFTER HERE.
Purchased in December, 2021 for asking price at $479,000. Buyer representative: Sandi Park. Sellers represented by another Realtor.
Sold June, 2023 in multiple offer: $555,100. Seller Representative: Sandi Park.
Even when factoring costs to clear the home (see back story below,) repair and revive the property, my clients ended up ahead after selling for $76,100 more than purchase only eighteen months prior and this fairyland property had a torch pass to excited new owners. See Full Listing.
Back story on this two week transformation to camera ready (see 30 second video)
Eighteen months after purchase, circumstances changed for my clients with an abrupt out of state leave. The once fairyland setting had unfortunately sustained a level of neglect and damage, inside and out, since their purchase. Getting the home cleaned out and show ready was in my hands to orchestrate. Alright team….
Within one week, the house and cottage filled with clutter were completely emptied and landscape revived to its fairyland state. Donate. Keep. Trash.
With now a canvas, enter the painters. Color consult with the talented Angela Colagiovanni for walls and stain color for the damaged beams. Next up cleaning crew came in with their wand for “sparkling” magic. In two weeks the home was camera/show ready and on the market.
At the end of the day, when sellers move, unless there is another agreement with buyers, all personal belongings go. I counsel clients to use to their advantage with a declutter at the front end.
A fresh coat of paint on the walls in a neutral color is an instant freshen. Some elbow grease with a deep clean is the cherry. These can all help lead to a successful and more lucrative sale at a relatively minimal cost.
Before putting money into home preparation for sale, feel free to call me (914-522-6282) I can assess your situation and advise where to best focus funds and time for return.
Posted with client permission.
The Days Ahead
No one has a crystal ball, but expect a way to go before we see a truly normalized market. My bet, which I first cast well over a year ago, 2025 is the soonest and I fully expect the bumpy ride to continue before we get there.
It’s a wrap! Should you be interested in buying and/or selling, let’s talk!
Should you have any questions on the market, feel free to reach out. Also, I am never too busy for your referrals and will take very good care of those sent my way.
I am active on Instagram. Follow along for tips, advice, market updates and sneak peeks in between The Brick! @hudsonvalleynest
Best,
Sandi