Happy Labor Day Weekend! With vacationers returning and kids going back to school, Fall Market kicks in next week! It’s not quite the “Woohoo!!!” of days past with such limited inventory, but my buyer clients have been securing homes and my sellers have been doing quite well, so I’m going to roll “Woohoo!!!” regardless.
Fall Market is not one to mess around with, particularly not this one with Spring Market 2024 having a big question mark. September, October and a piece of November encompass Fall Market. Historically, the market then settles down with the cyclically slowest months of the year in real estate mid-November through January. We know what is now. Now it continues as a sellers market, albeit most likely the tailwinds. If you want to sell, let’s meet and get you on the market!
Inventory continued on a plummet throughout the summer. Last year, on September 1, 2022, there were 637 available single family detached listings. Mid-Hudson MLS shows 530 current available listings, approximately 20% lower than the year prior. Here are the past five years of available inventory to share perspective:
September, 1:
2018: 1347
2019: 1298
2020: 1011 (First Fall Market with Covid. Down, but not drastic)
2021: 630 (Inventory dives)
2022: 637
Today – September 1, 2023: 530
Many homeowners with low interest rate mortgages are holding back on moving. There are areas in the country that have been moving toward a neutral market and realizing increased inventory. Affordability and inventory has remained a serious issue nationwide in many regions, though. Let’s unpack that…
Affordable Housing
I came across a historical taxation factoid while researching an 1830 Greek Revival residence soon entering the market in the Village of Rhinebeck that gleans yet another perspective on the state of affairs with affordable housing.
The example that follows is in Rhinebeck, NY, a lower tax town, with my bet other municipalities could find similar, if not broader, outcome. In 1880, the aggregate State tax against all taxable property in the whole of Rhinebeck was $23,045, per “History of Rhinebeck” by E. Smith.
At the time, there were 3,905 residents in Rhinebeck. Of those, 716 were “taxable people.” That nets out to $32 in total taxes per each of the 716 taxable people.
Fast forward 143 years at an average inflation rate of 2.4%. $32.00 equals approximately $957.00 today. Computation deviation from days past with current reality feeds into other calculations, as well.
Putting taxes aside, why was it so much easier for prior generations to buy? As one example, in 1970 the average home price in the US was $15,000. Today, that average has jumped 29x to $436,000. But wait…
The average income in 1970 was $9,000. The US average income has risen only 6X to current $56,000. Home prices are up 29X with income only up 6X. Add taxes, for starters, into the sauce and it becomes clear why there is a real issue with housing affordability in many parts of our country.
Is the pride of home ownership giving way to rentals as the solution to affordability? Developers, corporations and even lenders appear to see the viability of long term rentals with “build to rent” communities popping up around the country, particularly in the south.
Zillow just introduced a 1% down loan program, but does that help or further perpetuate the issue with higher monthly payments and increased interest accrued? I smell aptitude for increased foreclosures with that program.
Continued outbound migration to realize affordability in the days ahead? Certain states, likely.
Short Term Rentals (Air BnB) versus Long Term
Short term rentals can be a cash cow, no doubt. However, enough ordinances have changed in multiple municipalities to raise the caution flag in our area. I have been cooling on Air BnB in our region for that reason with passive income focus on multi-family and multi-unit. See a one minute clip on the subject here.
Since I hold a brokers license, I can gain multiple state licensure, which I am pursuing. If you have interest in investment properties in New York and beyond, let’s talk!
Choosing an Attorney
Careful choice should be considered when evaluating representation, whether realtors or attorneys. They are not created equal in their respective professions with both having the capability of making or breaking a deal. Click here for a one minute video with tips to consider when choosing a real estate attorney.
Coming Soon!
Village of Rhinebeck
c. 1830 with 1850 addition
$1,200,000
This prominent Greek Revival residence stands in testament to fine 19th century architecture. First built c. 1830 with addition in 1850, the majestic temple front greets and graces an expansive portico. The front sidewalk lures from the heart of the charming and bustling Village of Rhinebeck. Detached and generous two car garage includes an upper level for storage and/or potential studio or workshop. Two additional sheds and carport. The landscaped property features a secret garden and ample space for simple enjoyment. Solid construction with meticulously placed fieldstone foundation. Cement floor throughout basement with log posts accessible from interior and Bilco doors. Period craftsmanship and architectural detail throughout. If your preference is historic charm updated to your own tastes, this 19th century diamond awaits! 2.5 miles to Rhinecliff train with Amtrak to Penn. Contact Sandi with questions or to schedule your private viewing.
Professional photos next week! This is just a sneak peek with my own photos. Entering the market on September 12.
Testimonial
“Sandi is in a league of her own.”
I. Mbue
The “Weeding Out” Continues…
According to a National Association of Realtors report, over 60,000 realtors left the industry during the six month period December, 2022 and May, 2023. This is not a shocker with an industry “weeding out” projected for some time in The Brick.
Taking it a step further, per New York Department of State, there were 135,222 licensed real estate salespersons and brokers in December, 2019. While the perception may be that number increased during the pandemic with floods of freshly minted realtors entering the market, there has actually been a steady drop.
Per Department of State licensing (it took me forever to get these numbers out of them) In December, 2021, there were 134,774 active licensed real estate sales persons and brokers; 448 less than the year prior. That number continued to tick down with December, 2022 reporting 133,549. The decrease between 2019 and 2022 is more noticeable with 1,673 having exited since 2019. It is fully expected a number of real estate sales persons and brokers will continue to exit the industry in the days ahead. Keep this one going with referrals!
TOP SIX IN SIX LUXURY
Ultra luxury has taken a recent pause in Columbia, Dutchess and Ulster counties. The top six sales in the past six months in these three counties range $3,200,000-$4,200,000. Four of the six top sales were built between 1840-1940. Click here to see the top recent luxury sales in Columbia, Dutchess and Ulster counties.
There was a time during the crazed past few years when ultra luxury could realize sales in just a few months. For instance, last September, Eden Knoll in Rhinebeck sold for $18,500,000. Accepted offer in less than two months with a close two months later. Click here to see the listing. This was not the norm before the pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, it could take a year to years for that price point to sell.
Are we slowing down in the ultra luxury space? Ledgerock in Hyde Park better hope not. I was considered to represent that listing. There can be varied opinions on price, but it has quite a bit to offer and panoramic views of the Hudson River that are hard to beat. Ledgerock is back on the market with a slight reduction from $29,000,000 to $25,000,000 this go. If it sells above $18,500,000 it will set a record in Mid-Hudson MLS history with highest sale. See the listing here.
In Westchester County, the top six range for the past six months was $6,600,000 to $7,400,000. Click here to see Westchester top luxury.
It’s a wrap! If you are interested in selling and/or buying, let’s talk. There are only two solid months to Fall Market as far as real estate is concerned. Getting the most out of both could prove prudent.
The foundation of my business is based on referrals. Should you know of someone interested in real estate, I would appreciate keeping me in mind. I will take very good care of those sent my way.
I am active on Instagram. Follow for tips, advice, market updates and sneak peeks in between The Brick @hudsonvalleynest
Would love to hear your feedback and input for future issues! Email me here.
Happy Fall!
Best,
Sandi