It’s a Wrap

Greetings all!

My mind has been in 2025 since my coach breathed fire to get my business plan done in October. I’m looking for flowers as it’s April already in my books! We moved into a home we love just before the break. While we haven’t seen much snow yet this year, we enjoyed a teaser glimpse. Here’s the view from our windows. We are so happy here! Hope you all enjoyed a peaceful break.

It didn’t take long for the holiday fog to clear and questions to kick in about 2025. Did anything change post November NAR settlements? Will home valuations appreciate further in 2025? What is expected with interest rates? When is the time to sell? How long is it expected we will stay in a sellers market? Why is your Brick delayed?!

I am excited to introduce an accessible and thoughtfully updated home to the market! Less than 10 minutes from Poughkeepsie and New Paltz rests Lloyd and Highland. I’m excited to introduce this home as well as a new spin on custom web sites for my seller clients (see link below to check it out.) My web site (HudsonValleyNest) will be launching its redesigned site within the next week. AND I started stretch/pilates combo sessions. Thrive in 25! (unless I get stuck in one of these pilates positions…but let’s send up positive vibes)

On tap:

• The Changing Market
• The National Association of Realtors
• Settlement Changes: Buyers and Sellers
• The Numbers
• Expired Listings
• Featured Listing – 19 Oak Crest Drive, Highland
• Luxury

Let’s dive in…

The Changing Market

Back in December, 2021, I was preparing the Adair Vineyards and Winery listing in New Paltz for an early January entry. Prior to the pandemic, unless there was specific need to do so, it was generally unheard of to put a listing on the market the week before Christmas. The first two weeks on the market are too important from a marketing perspective to sacrifice days to holidays and holiday distraction. My clients signed off on a wait for January launch. I started pre-marketing the listing in mid-December so it would have legs to hit the market with a “pow” after the holidays.

The calls immediately started. And continued. One after the other. People wanted to see this property. With the high level of interest just from pre-marketing, I didn’t see any reason for my clients to wait (other than for me to have a relaxing holiday break, but that didn’t enter into the picture in the thought process.)

On December 19, 2021, Adair Vineyards and Winery entered the market with a consideration window attached of January 8, 2022 before my clients would make a decision in order to allow buyers ample time to thoughtfully consider as the property needed a significant amount of work, restoration and finances to bring it to glory. I had one day off between December 19-January 8: Christmas Day. I knew then that at least the front end of 2022 was going to be a doozy. It was.

Fast forward. My new listing (details further down) in Highland. The market started its adjustment during the back end of 2022 when interest rates started their ascent. Since then, the market has been moving its way toward a normalized market. This round would be an “after the holidays” entry.

The “average days on market” for my listings consistently and historically rank below average. In Orange, November, 2024 YTD days on market was 56, Dutchess 57, Putnam 48, Ulster 63 and Westchester 38. While many areas around the country have been realizing increased days on market for some time, all numbers in our area are reporting below 2023, year over year. I do expect those numbers across the board to rise in 2025.

Backing out my $4,350,000 listing that took 60 days to secure three buyers in multiple offer, my average of all other listings in 2024 was 21 days days on market, which has been around the same for the past four years and well below the overall average. Time is not your friend in this market. Goal is to enter solid in pricing backed by highly effective marketing, Get on and off the shelf, but hovering in a 21 day average zone will likely not be realistic in the days ahead.

We entered the market on January 2nd with agreement to wait until January 13th to consider offers so my clients could have two full weekends of showings, which allowed opportunity for buyers to come that may have still been away for the holidays on market entry. We have had showings and positive feedback that has included anticipated offer submission. The open house last weekend had a healthy amount of buyers, but it is different, particularly considering this house is in what has been a coveted “under $500K” price point. It is enjoying what feels more like a healthy “pre pandemic” market entry.

I absolutely believe 2025 is going to continue down the path of an adjusting market. If intention is to sell in 2025, reach out and we can talk through your goals and create a comfortable plan. I do believe the front end of 2025 could prove more fruitful from a return perspective than the backend.

The National Association of Realtors and Lawsuits

The National Association of Realtors (“NAR”) has failed miserably in keeping brokerages and member realtors fully abreast of developments, agreements and settlements throughout the dismantling of the real estate industry, IMHO. Unfortunately, this lack of adequate communication opens the door for increased uncertainty and distrust for consumers. Many realtors and brokerages are doing the best they can with the cards being dealt to relay accurate and informative information. We are in this boat together with our clients as we migrate these waters.

The National Association of Realtors posted a decrease of 25,000 from their 1.5M membership for the month of December, 2024. Guaranteed that reduction would be exponentially higher if most real estate agents weren’t cuffed by multiple listing services, brokerages or local boards/associations to NAR with membership mandate in order to utilize the MLS, maintain association with a particular brokerage or local association. NAR infiltrated these entities of livelihood for agents with agreements that left no choice but for agents to continue funding their association. I took a poll in a realtor version of The Brick and asked my colleagues whether they would maintain membership with NAR if they did not have to. Every single response so far has been “no.”

I can’t decide which is more painful – the lack of association choice or what NAR is doing to those that try to “deflect.” Case in point – “MLS Choice” was (or appears soon to be “was”) an a la carte MLS membership option introduced in the Phoenix area. It presented member agents with service options based on individual need to successfully provide for their clients. This MLS service did not require membership to NAR. NAR is in process of extinguishing that MLS with first step a “cease and desist” order. Ironically, NAR touts focus on “transparency, competition and choice,” yet to the members paying for their existence it seems all about “power, control and money.”

If you are interested in a deeper dive of the realtor side or if you are a member of the press looking for a storyline on this industry debacle, you may find the realtor edition an interesting read. There is some overlap between the two versions, but also unique content in both. That version was written realtor to realtor.

All in, I am an advocate of constructive change in any industry. I believe we will see more realtors standing up with demands for a voice in the days ahead. If we are going to productively address changes in an industry, a bigger lens is needed, along with a mirror, IMHO. The focus has been realtor and consumer. Associations, brokerages and multiple listing services should also be on tap for evaluation.

Settlement Changes – Sellers

The net net from the November settlement meet is we are now in the world of appeals. My understanding is until all settlements have reached conclusion there will be no award distributions to home sellers. My further understanding is in the moment, we are operating under the same direction as prior to the November meet.

Buyers need to chose and sign one of multiple option buyer agent agreements and sellers cannot include buyer agent compensation in the MLS. I have seen notations where the decision makers seem to be kicking around not allowing the seller or the seller agent to relay compensation in any manner to a buyer or buyer agent, but I have to believe trying that out for size could further ignite legal issues.

Can the government really dictate how a seller sells their property? Real estate was an easy target as first stop. What keeps the government from doing this in another industry? If pools go into demand and get expensive, can the government dictate how much the pool companies can charge? Who wants the government deciding who can pay a person and how much? Are attorneys now going to add a sentence in retainers stating their fees are “fully negotiable?” Why should dictates be acceptable to impose on one industry but not another? In my mind, this isn’t just about the real estate industry.

The notion that compensation can’t be in the MLS but it can be anywhere else is a time sink into stupidity. What’s the point other than to drive listing agents nuts fielding compensation inquires from buyer agents? It doesn’t seem there is a clear thought process at the helm. When Northwest MLS began offering sellers the option of buyer agent commission in 2019, they still maintained compensation fields in the MLS. The change happened, most sellers continued to compensate buyer agents because at the end of the day sellers need buyers and they rolled forward without the circus this has become.

Settlement Changes – Buyers

IMHO, buyers got the short end of the stick, but that leaves sellers with a short stick too as sellers need buyers. Three areas where I see high potential for certain buyers to feel harmed and law suits to increase:

1) New laws can leave cash strapped buyers (particularly first time buyers) without ability to have representation or dedicated representation particularly beneficial for first time buyers

2) In multiple instance it appears the government and those influencing governmental decisions (read: Consumer Federation of America) are focused on moving away from buyer agency and toward dual agency. Many realtors will not work in dual agency (representing buyer and seller) and there are those who shouldn’t. Dual can be sticky and takes skill for buyers and sellers to leave the closing table feeling whole in a dual transaction. I find in dual accountability and by extension timelines to be much tighter with direct access to all parties, but there are absolutely certain agents that should not work in dual. Pushing buyers into dual agency as a solution is playing with representation fire, but that is exactly what they appear to be doing and

3) Buyers should be fully aware there are multiple versions of buyer agent agreements. Buyers should also be very clear that the amount noted for buyer agent compensation in the buyer agent agreement is payable by the buyer if there is still amount owing after seller compensation (if any). With still confusion in the industry, I foresee issues arising if realtors don’t properly and fully address these agreements.

The Numbers

Pending sales increased 2.2% nationwide in November, according to the National Association of Realtors. The south, midwest and west all rose in pending sales with the northeast decreasing. This aligns with steady inventory increases around the country.

OneKey MLS has not yet posted December numbers. November YOY up 10.6% from $420,000 to $465,000 in Dutchess County. Westchester County realized a rise of 8.8% to $925,000 from prior November $850,000. Ulster County, which posted up 8.8% in median pricing from $400,000 to $435,000 and Putnam up 14.63% from $480,000 to $550,000.

There are a flurry of projections for 2025. Here’s my take – certain parts of the country will likely realize continued deceleration (meaning valuation increase, but at a slower pace) or even depreciation in valuations which has already been the case in places like Austin, Texas.

We have been gradually decelerating in our area since June, 2022. I wholly do not expect a crash and I do believe even if we realize continued deceleration or even certain depreciation, sales will still realize a higher overall gain over the past five years due to the trajectory increases we realized during Covid frenzy than if we had continued with normal trending and no pandemic.

Numbers are starting to catch up with projections I have made, including in the November issue. I stand by the quote “I still expect 2025 to be a busy and solid market but I also expect it to be a different market, particularly as we press further into 2025.” Sitting listings turning into expired listings will likely be a noticeable contributor.

Houses that Don’t Sell – Impact on 2025

Redfin revealed that nationwide active listings hit their highest level since 2020 in November. They also noted this as “driven by a surge of unsold homes lingering on the market.” While our region is still realizing low inventory, I raised an expected “build up” in listings in Q1 2025 spilling over into Q2 in a September social media post. See that forecast post. I do see our area realizing the referenced surge, but delayed from many other areas in the country.

Let’s unpack that further as “homes linger” often ultimately means expiring. Over 900 listings expired in Dutchess County in 2024 alone. Over 1700 expired in Westchester County in 2024. Those are big numbers considering Dutchess County, for example, hasn’t even seen that many listings available at any one time since before the pandemic. Combine this with a Fannie Mae projection for home price deceleration from around 6.4% to 3.6% by Q4 2025 and 1.7% by 2026. See Fannie Mae projections below.

Here’s what I would put my chips on: Sitting and expired listings are going to continue to rise in 2025 as certain sellers and certain realtors miss the deceleration memo and overprice. Sidebar: I have had not one residential listing expire since 2020 and sold over $12M in listings that came to me after expiring with other realtors to successfully sell in 2024 alone.

As overpriced listings carry over from Q1 into Q2 then spring market kicks in with historically the highest house count on the market without all these extra sitting listings. There is where I see potential for the pendulum to start to make its move out of a sellers market. I am expecting expired listing count to be even higher than 2024 count. As far as singular highest day of the year for listings to expire, that is January 1st. See more on that in this one minute social media post.

I see a market shift out of seller market conditions in 2025. I have been advising my clients to list in the January-March timeframe rather than waiting on competition in spring market as I believe spring market is going to be a mixed bag and have had clients do quite well during the winter months. With that, I’d like to introduce my latest listing.

Featured Listing

Minutes from New Paltz and Poughkeepsie

19 Oak Crest Drive, Highland

$489,000

Open House Saturday, January 11 10:00am-12:00pm

Come join me on a house tour while one of my preferred lenders, Vince Aurigemma with Valley Bank will be available to answer loan and mortgage industry questions.

Here’s what my new custom web sites for clients look like. Check it out! Would appreciate constructive feedback!

See More – 19 Oak Crest Drive, Highland

Client Testimonial

“Even after closing she makes herself available for any questions or market advice. When she says she sticks with her clients, she’s not kidding.”

Nicki W.

L U X

While Millbrook has been experiencing a notable slow in sales, there was a luxury over ask sale, which was also the highest transaction in Millbrook this past year. List price of $8,000,000. Sold $10,786,000. See the listing here.

The highest sale in Rhinebeck posted at $6,487,500. Located at 42 Wyndcliff Road, Rhinecliff. The listing agent took the pictures down, but here is the info.

Ledgerock in Hyde Park just came back on the market. This property first entered the market in 2022 at $45,000,000. It had a great deal of press with headlines proclaiming the property was slated to be the “highest sale in Dutchess County history.” When working in luxury, targeted press exposure is one prong of several to reach high end buyers. Once the press has been leveraged, it is very rare to get them back to the table again, though.

I was considered to represent Ledgerock, but the owner did not want to accept my professional opinion on price range. At the time, he had come off the $45,000,000 perch but was only willing to consider going down to $25M. I dedicate a considerable amount of time, effort and personal funds to accomplish my clients goals across price points. The spread was too far from my recommended price to have confidence the property would successfully sell.

I thought he sold this past summer for right around where he is now listed (which is also in the same range I had recommended to him over a year ago). I think Ledgerock should move at this current price point coupled with strong and targeted marketing. Let’s see.

Here are the ten highest priced listings in Dutchess and Ulster counties – Ledgerock is included

I met someone a few years back when selling one of my Poughkeepsie properties on the south side. One of these days she’s going to be a client, but for now she reached out asking whether to install a pool at her house knowing that the intention is relatively short term before moving.

Prior to the pandemic, pools were dicey when it came to value. Some people do not want pools between the maintenance and liability. During Covid pools took off with it not uncommon to wait over a year for installation. In her circumstance, I recommended considering a year round “swim spa”. It serves the purpose for a dunk, can be used year round and does not chance the return on sale with a pool installation. One of my clients has one and loves it.

Should you or someone you know have interest in selling and seek guidance on how to prepare to best showcase your home, realize the biggest return for the dollar in upgrades or your home valuation in current market conditions, let’s meet!

Wishing you all the very best for 2025. I have set high goals. Please help me reach them with your referrals! I am going to a top producer business conference in a few weeks. Looking forward to the interchange of ideas and successes between colleagues and coming back that much more pumped!

Best,

Sandi