Hello all,
Happy summer! I’m getting ready to go to Iceland and have some projects when I get back so I’m merging July and August editions with this round. Any tidbits on Iceland, please reach out!
Let’s call a spade a spade. While technically still in a sellers market, an adjustment has been underway with indications of continued movement to a neutral market. The “Wild West” days are done. Properties that realize multiple offers are generally finding more contained offers versus double digit percentage flights over ask from days past.
It was a lackluster Spring Market this year with June inventory levels (listings available) hitting the lowest of any June in past five years, per Mid Hudson MLS. The low inventory had a domino effect on sales. Single family detached was down 21.5% in YTD closed sales with attached single family taking an even bigger hit, down 39% in closed sales.
There are several current indicators of market adjustment that may seem discreet in the moment. Low inventory has continued with enough buyers to keep demand in a sellers market across most towns and price points. Yet, pricing has stabilized, if not gone down, depending on metrics employed. YTD median sale price remained flat in comparison to June 22 YTD at $415,000 while the average sale price was down 8.4% to $475,597 from $519,169 in June 2022. Current average sale price in June, 2023 was down 8.2%.
Are interest rates refueling for another ascent? While they have teetered and even gone down, speculation around continued rise remains. There are pockets in the country already experiencing a neutral market. The once sizzling hot sellers market in Austin, Texas has been moving toward a neutral market for the past year, as one example. While sellers may have been spoiled by riches over the past three years, the neutral market is the healthiest of market types as it indicates balanced supply for demand.
Fall is historically the second busiest time of year in our region, but will there be a “pop” this year? If interest rates hit 8% or higher as speculated, there could be another sweep of buyers no longer in a position to buy or adjusting to a lower price point to maintain affordability. I’m not even going to get started with the impact the election could have. Suffice to say, bumpy roads should be expected in the days ahead as we move out of the sellers market. My bet remains as first stated in March, 2022 edition of The Brick: It will likely be 2025 before we realize a truly stabilized market.
I do believe we are going to see an active Fall Market with more sellers on board that have either been on the perch or expired and re-list for another round before the historical winter slow down. The market is changing, though. Let’s look at days on market…
The numbers are down with the exception of days on market. That number is up by nearly 37% June 2023 versus June 2022 to 78 days. This introduces an interesting dynamic going on in the market right now.
Five Years of June
Average Days on Market versus Inventory.
“Days on Market” = Active to Contract
June, 2019 – Considered our last “normal trending” year in real estate before the hot mess hit.
Average days on market: 82.
Available listings (inventory) 1266
June, 2020. Homes sat on the market March-May, 2020 during shutdown. By June 1, 2020, the shutdown lifted and the tsunami of buyers started to hit our area, but would not yet reflect in numbers. The numbers below are coming out of shutdown with peak April-May mostly non-existent in sales.
Average days on market: 94
Available Listings: 889
June, 2021
Covid frenzy levels. Days on market plunge, inventory takes a hit.
Average Days on Market: 61
Available Listings: 652
June, 2022
The market had its first interest rate gasp in May, 2022. Days on market and inventory continued descent as buyers panicked to buy amidst rising rates.
Average days on market: 57
Available listings: 577
June, 2023. Days on market increases 36.8% from June 2022 to 78 days, just shy of return to preCovid 82 days in 2019. Yet, inventory takes its deepest plummet during this five year June analysis – down 20.6% from June, 2022 to 458 available listings. In 2019, that number was 1266.
Days on market increase despite plummeted inventory is a strong indicator of market adjustment. If the interest rates take another uptick, then mortgaged buyer count could decrease that much more, further leveling the scale to a neutral market.
Good time to “test the waters” with pricing? Definitely not. If you’re interested in selling your property, let’s talk. I don’t blow smoke to get listings. I’ll share a real range and then squeeze every dime there is from the market, but that entry price must be real or price reductions kick in. I’ve seen streams of price reduction emails come into my box these days. It is a much better position to decide between buyers than negotiate down with a singular one.
Latest Feature Article “Historic Hudson Valley Homes are Having a Moment” featured an interview with yours truly and spotlight on my latest Rhinebeck listing (including 27 photos – woohoo!) at 262 Route 308. NOW IN CONTRACT. Asking $1,595,000.
“Details are a big part of what people love about old homes. Park finds surprises every time she enters one. She marvels at…” See full article here. Thanks TimesUnion for the thoughtful interviews, which included Town of Rhinebeck historian perspective. Well done!
This listing had been listed with another realtor for two years and did not sell. Within a week, we had our buyer. What’s the secret sauce for the consistent pattern in sales? See 30 second video here.
Week in Closings
 23 Madre de Cristo, Wallkill $589,000 Closed 7/26 |  268 Pinebrook Road Hyde Park $350,200 Closed 7/18 |  885 Pumpkin Lane, Clinton Corners On the verge of closing. Closing date: 7/27. Asking: $850,000 |
Testimonial
“Sandi was amazing to work with.”
Shannon Stewart – fellow Realtor
I smell motivation in Pleasant Valley…
This house had been on the market for $869,900 before Covid and didn’t sell. The driveway is long (which is great for privacy) and there are a few lower end homes that do utilize the front end of the driveway (you can’t see them at all from the 53+ acre property). The driveway is part of this property with access easement to those houses, which is generally not ideal, BUT….
It went back on the market for $1,200,000 in 2021 and hit multiple offer. Sold for $1,225,000. My understanding is the new owners put quite a bit into the home after purchase. They first put it on the market for $1,600,000 in May, 2022 and have been decreasing since to the current price of $1,190,000 – below what they paid.
There is a guest house, pool, 53+ acres. The property is beautiful. There is a trail on the far side of the property that I understand had been used during the Revolutionary War. Would love to take a metal detector there.
Click here for the listing. Contact me if you would like to see.
Next is another example that while some houses have gone into multiple offer, others quietly sat on the market to ultimately reduce in price to sell or expired. 42 Kuchler Drive entered the market for $1,600,000 and nearly a year later, closed for half the asking price or $800,000. HALF! Here’s the listing.
256 Linden Avenue, Red Hook
The Luxury Flip
There is often substantial financial outlay in a luxury flip. The luxury buyer tends to be well versed in recognizing whether corners were cut in the renovation/restoration process. Adequate budget for the level of craftsmanship and detail expected is generally necessary for optimal return. I have seen luxury flips “flop.”
This flip hit bulls eye. The home rests on eight bucolic and private acres yet needed a substantial amount of restoration/update/repair. Purchased December, 2020 for $700,000, which was $211,000, or 43%, over the early pandemic $489,000 asking price. Sold July 19, 2023 for $3,755,000.
Even with expenses factored, this seems a score, yes? I visited the home at different stages of transformation. It seemed to bask in glory from all the attention. Seeing all the craftsman attending with such care was professionally fulfilling.
Listing agents on sales:
Sandi Park, Coldwell Banker Global Luxury and Raj Kumar, Four Seasons Sothebys
Reasonable versus Rationale
Can 43% Over Ask Make Sense?
Whether multiple offer or not, comparatives are pulled for buyer clients prior to offer submission. From there, a reasonable value range is shared. It is very important clients are knowledgeable, comfortable and confident with their choices. Clients should
know where the line is between reasonable and rational. For a clearer understanding of the multiple offer distinction between rational and reasonable, watch Sandi’s 60 second explanation here.
Newburgh Luxury
Newburgh has been getting my attention. What can $3,500,000 get you in Newburgh? Click here.
The proximity to the Hudson River with this home reminds me of a house across the water in Hyde Park. That one was last asking $29,000 before going off the market (with an initial market entry asking price of $45,000,000.). In fairness, the Hyde Park house is noticeably larger along with a guest house, but that is a pretty big spread in pricing.
Click here to see Ledgerock in Hyde Park. Not currently on the market.
Drop me a line if you’d like to see either listing
It’s a wrap! I am spending much of August preparing for Fall Market (and a little trip!) I am of the belief that we will see more activity in Fall Market. Those interested in selling, I would get on the market in September as the market takes a real slow down November-January with 2024 a definite question on market conditions.
The foundation of my business is based on referrals. Should you be interested or know of someone interested in buying or selling, I would appreciate keeping me in mind. I will take very good care of those sent my way.
I am active on Instagram. Followalong for tips, advice, market updates and sneak peeks in between The Brick @hudsonvalleynest
Best,
Sandi