Hello 2024 and Happy New Year to All!
Historically a slower month in real estate, this year the smell of Spring Market hit the air in January. That smell puts a skip in the step every time (and can delay The Brick!). The hopper is churning with nearly $2.3M in January transactions (buy and sell) kicking off 2024 expected to be in contract by the beginning of February with more behind them. That’s decent momentum coming into Spring Market. Keep that train chugging! Discussed in more detail, this is not the case with all realtors.
Redfin reported 49% of real estate professionals had zero to one transaction in 2023 with an industry exodus expected in 2024. That eye popping stat was sobering and enveloped every piece of my being with gratitude. Thank you to my clients, friends, followers and subscribers for keeping this realtor rolling full steam. I am never too busy for your referrals and deeply appreciate your trusted support sending them my way. I am a full time realtor with my career the livelihood for myself and children.
With 2023 the least affordable year in US housing on record, where do we go from there? Affordability is directly tied to supply and demand debacle that has plagued markets throughout the country since 2020. Per Mid Hudson MLS, we hit rock bottom in inventory between December 2021-April 2022, averaging a dismal less than third of a normal trending year in inventory with an average of 365 available listings. For the first January in two decades, inventory in January, 2024 was.higher than in December. This is highly encouraging.
When culling through the years and discovering that tidbit, let’s say my feet left ground. If you haven’t seen a realtor levitate, take a two second watch. Feel free to rate the socks. This is a positive sign of movement toward stabilization. Inventory is expected to continue to increase in 2024 and 2025 with continued movement toward balance in supply and demand. The balanced market is a neutral market, the healthiest of market types.
Elections tend to impact the real estate market. The second busiest market of the year in our area, Fall Market, will likely be at least slow, and potentially a full blown bust, due to the election. Once signs start flurrying about the landscape and talk shifts to politics, buyer uncertainty statistically grows and can put what is the singular largest purchase for most on pause.
I’m peppering in local information on events, activities, etc. on both sides of the bridge and beyond in upcoming issues. Should you have an event or hear of something interesting, please let me know for inclusion! ([email protected])
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This issue:
- Market Conditions
- Snap Shot Stats
- Interest Rates and Refinancing
- Realtor Exodus
- Aging in Place
- Mid Hudson Multiple Listing Service Shutdown
- Robot or Realtor?
- Latest Listings
- Luxury
- Let’s Go Shopping!
Here we go...
Market Conditions
Net net for this year? The market is strong for sellers now with less buyers than when interest rates were five percent and below, but still enough demand to hold pricing. This should remain through Spring Market so long as interest rates keep at most a “6” involved. Lenders are reporting a noticeable uptick in mortgage applications. Inventory is expected to increase. All signs point to a bustling Spring Market.
If planning to sell or buy, getting ahead of Spring Market competition could prove prudent. One of my luxury listings enjoyed an accepted offer in two days in January. Another listing has had 15 showings in 3 days. No need to wait on pretty flowers. Buyers are out now with inventory still painfully low. It’s the perfect climate for sellers priced well and effectively marketed and for buyers to not be competing with as many buyers as expected in Spring Market.
The real estate market in our area is cyclical and runs ahead of official calendar season starts. The day after Super Bowl is the mark for Spring Market start in our area. This year, February 12th is kickoff day as far as realtors are concerned.
Spring Market peaks in April/May. This is also historically when the highest level of options (and competition) are in the market. June tends to be a mixed month with new listings coming on and listings that did not sell prior reducing in price to sell, particularly when a summer closing is sought.
Prior to 2020, January and early February tended to see buyers dipping their toes into the market. See some houses, tour neighborhoods; “get a feel” as they prepared for Spring Market. It wasn’t overly active in deals during those months. We have been in a different space since inventory plummeted and still remains in shortage.
Luxury is showing signs of saturation in Dutchess County, in particular, with Putnam County also near term vulnerable. Luxury took off during the pandemic with the last “normal trending year” of 2019 selling only 35 residences above $1,000,000 in Dutchess County, per Mid Hudson MLS. Luxury took a sharp jump in 2020 (124 sales), 2021(133 sales) and 2022 (121 sales) with a noticeable decline in 2023 to 81 sales. More listings expired than sold in luxury in 2023. If 2024 keeps pace, the writing is on the wall for saturation with 74 listings active already on the market and quite a few more anticipated as we get closer to Spring Market. Luxury sellers: Definitely consider getting on the market now. Reach out to discuss.
The most likely ideal window to sell in 2024 has already started and should continue through Spring Market (assuming there are no major deviations from current conditions.) With Spring Market comes more competition, although the inventory shortage is expected to see some relief. The head start my clients took to introduce their million dollar property to the market secured buyers in two days. See that listing here. Less competition yet still buyer demand.
Reach out to get started with what to expect in pricing, multi prong marketing and customized approach to preparing for sale. If you’re wondering if now is a good time to buy, it is if you find a property you are comfortable with and can comfortably afford. The days of rock bottom interest rates are most likely done for the foreseeable future and then some.
Snap Shot Stats
Dutchess County was down 20% in closed sales in 2023 in single family detached (“SFD,”) per Mid Hudson MLS. The year finished with a median sale price up 3.2% to $430,000. Average days on market are up 7.5% to 72 days, still well within the threshold absorption rate (the cycling of a property from active to sold) to hold in a sellers market. In our area, 0-5 months is a sellers market. 6-8 months is a neutral market and 8 months+ is a buyers market.
Attached living has garnered heightened attention for some time as it can provide a level of detail, craftsmanship and amenities that may not be found in single family detached within a threshold of comparable price. The year ended with attached living up 7.3% in median price to $309,500.
The year closed out down 17% in available SFD listings at 398 versus 484 posted end of year December 2022.
Sales in Mid Hudson MLS by Township 2023
Interest Rates and Refinancing
Interest rates have been going down, but expecting a decline matching the swift incline of 2022 in reverse is not happening. The Commerce Department released a report showing strong retail sales in December which could put a nix on hopes the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in March. Pantheon Macroeconomics shared in a letter to clients expectations rate cuts will likely not kick in until May.
Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor shared “…..I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past.” Seems clear if there is a swift and sharp dip in interest rates there will likely be other issues attached that could negatively impact buyer confidence and new purchase applications, so rolling slow and steady is likely the calmer road in the moment. With rates now having a “6” involved, so long as upticks are held at bay, Spring Market is projected to be in bustle mode. The lock-in effect, driven by the interplay of low rate mortgages, rising interest rates and scarcity of homes for sale has been a prominent issue in the real estate market since 2022. This eased somewhat as the interest rates lowered. The MBA predicts a whopping 56% increase in refinances in 2024.
Realtor Exodus
There is a significant industry exodus of real estate professionals projected to hit many markets nationwide in 2024. It seems the past four years have been defined by have and have nots. Cash vs. financed buyers were first at bat with financed buyers routinely feeling the heat when competing against cash. Certain mortgage types (FHA, for instance) most often didn’t even bother coming to the table 2020 through the front end of 2022. The past two years, have and have nots were amongst the realtors themselves. While some may have thought the number of real estate professionals increased during 2020-2023, I pulled numbers from the Department of State for new licenses/license renewals and they revealed a different story.
There has been a steady decrease in new real estate licenses/license renewals since 2019 in New York State. This makes sense considering how incredibly competitive it has been. Listings have been coveted and buyers along with their realtors lived on an emotional roller coaster as both time in market and radius for searches extended due to ongoing bidding wars and severe inventory shortage. If an inexperienced realtor and/or a seasoned realtor with primary client base in buyers successfully made it through these recent years, they earned their stripes and then some.
Aging in Place
In agreement with other projections, I fully expect 65+ sales to continue to increase in 2024 and 2025. The basic desire is for a home that best suits adjusted needs, current and anticipated physical abilities and lifestyle. It could be lower, equal or higher valuation than current residence. It is definitively not always “scale down.”
Study after study confirms over 90% of seniors desire to age in place. Longevity in independence and avoiding the assisted living scene is generally a high priority.
The desire is to age in place, but that “place” needs to check more boxes than current residence. Most are willing to do some level of renovation to make the home their own. Per the US Census Bureau, only 1 in 10 homes are suitable to age in place. This aligns with the huge uptick noted by the National Association of Builders with 77% of remodeling projects in the past five years being seniors renovating their home to accommodate aging in place.
Lending Tree recently conducted a survey based on US Census data that revealed 19%, or over 10 million people over 65 still have a mortgage. That leaves 80% that don’t and therefore not nearly as impacted by the “lock-in effect” as many are. For myriad reasons, I believe seniors will be a prominent sector in the market going forward in both buy and sell.
I am a senior transition partner, which is more than just words. As in any other age group, there are varied needs when working with seniors. There are also different areas of focus and sensitivity. Quite often a home is being sold that has been treasured for decades. That can also mean decades of belongings. Culling through and making choices can be difficult on some. I have a team of high caliber professionals I surround myself with that help in different facets of the transition as needed.
I had one client opt to sleep on her living room couch for two years because she could no longer get up the stairs to her bedroom. The home had out served its safe and useful purpose, yet she was chained by clutter. She now lives happily in a single floor condo. It was a process nurtured by understanding and support.
Pictured is my client, Peter. I have been his partner on soon to be six transactions in the past four years. In his hand is a compass. He’s determined to have sunset views in his new residence. We will get you that sunset, Peter.
Mid Hudson Multiple Listing Service
Shutdown
The Mid Hudson Multiple Listing Service (“MHMLS”) has been keeping track of sales primarily in Dutchess County for over two decades. With nearly 1,500 member agents, the service will officially merge with the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors (“HGAR”) with nearly 50,000 member agents on February 1.
I continued to maintain membership with both services when I relocated from Westchester to Dutchess five years ago to afford my clients the increased exposure to HGAR realtors, which was nearly 48,000 more than if I was in the Mid Hudson MLS alone.
The big change that gets me all excited is the reporting. With HGAR exponentially larger staffed, the reporting capabilities are much more robust. Bring that data in! I have spent days pulling data out of the Mid Hudson MLS system to slice and analyze in ways not available otherwise for the benefit of my clients and subscriber base. I never understood how a solid pulse could be kept on the market to counsel clients, both buyers and sellers, on pricing and the overall market without staying close to certain stats, so I created them myself.
This is a positive and exciting merge, but I’m not fully confident all historical data will make the transition, so the real estate nerd in me has kicked into high to gather as much as I can before the system shuts down. The clock is ticking!
Nailed it again! Top Sales 2023
Robot or Realtor?
Artificial Intelligence has exploded in the real estate industry. It is estimated that 80% of real estate professionals are employing AI. I was in executive marketing before transitioning into real estate. While I see utilization of AI to aid mundane tasks and allow more time for creative, I have always considered marketing and creative development a skilled craft. AI can churn out impressive copy in seconds, but there are nuances that cannot replace human skill – or at least I’d like to believe that.
It is not uncommon at all for me to take on listings that expired (did not sell) with other realtors. There have been times a price adjustment was warranted (often marginal), but in all instances marketing, photography and copy were completely revamped. There is a synergy developed between the copy and photography that tells a story and is foundational to all marketing. For me, the photography inspires my.copy. While I hire professional photographers, I shoot pictures as well. This is both to add another perspective and also inspire my copy. I notice features through the eyes of the lens that I may not when first walking through a property. How can a robot replace capturing in words subtle nuances of a property? Connecting the photography and copy? I would be curious to hear your thoughts on it. Write me some feedback! I am staying informed as it is pervasive in my industry and our world, but let’s say I’m not an early adopter.
Almost Latest Listing
This listing flew off the shelf. It had been listed for a year and half prior with another realtor. There was a marginal price adjustment prior to market entry. The real change was a complete revamp in marketing. There were key features I brought to light in marketing, one of which was the reality of painted sky sunsets and seasonal mountain views from a glass surround sunroom facing due west.
My clients are happy with their buyers on every level and directed an acceptance after two days on the market. We are continuing to show through fully executed contract. Here’s a bit more on the property:
Quick Stats:
Three bedroom, three full/one half bathroom
3360 Square Feet
12.21 Acres – The harmonious mix of level groomed sward for recreation (potential pool site), gently rolling with wooden and stone fences dotting the landscape and wooded for privacy.
Central Heat and AC (plus an additional split in sunroom and family room)
Two car attached garage w/ one oversized bay
Two Additions: Sunroom with wrap around deck and family room/playroom/office (could convert to first floor bedroom)
Living Room with gas fireplace.
Parlor Room with wood burning fireplace.
20×30 Two bay barn with room for two vehicles and additional storage
Raised and fenced garden beds with water.
Rhinebeck Schools
Town of Clinton
Staatsburg PO
$1,049,000
Sunroom faces due West for painted sunset skies, seasonal mountain and natural surround views.
22×30 Two Bay Barn – houses all the upstate toys and tools.
Privacy. The over 12 acre property is a mix of level groomed sward, gently rolling and wooded.
Just Listed – Southside Cutie!
Introducing a solid affordable (and adorable!) housing or investment rental option in a charming and historic neighborhood of primarily higher valuation homes. Located in the beautiful and coveted Southside of Poughkeepsie. Less than ten minutes to Metro North, Vassar College, Marist College, Vassar Hospital, dining and entertainment. $255,000.
Details on this Southside Cutie:
- Built 1930
- One bedroom, one bathroom Converted from two bedroom.
- Cherry hardwood floors in living and dining rooms.
- Front porch/mudroom entry – three season
- Kitchen with dishwasher, refrigerator and newer gas oven
- Full bathroom with generous cedar closet. Room for washer/dryer.
- Bedroom with hardwood floors and entrance to four season porch/office
- 10×20 Heated four season porch
- Perennial gardens planted with exacting care in fenced and level yard.
- One car detached garage with 15×20 extension. Separate room and entrance with electric, heat and beams of light.
- New Roof 2013, Gas Boiler 2017
- 1040 square feet.
- Hot air oil heat, Central AC
Luxury
Luxury realized explosive growth both within the Hudson Valley and nationwide over the past four years. The Institute for Luxury Marketing defines the nationwide median luxury threshold price at $925,000. The nationwide median luxury home sale price was defined as $1,270,000 in the same report. In 2023, luxury homes sold for an average of 97.86% of sale price nationwide. Redfin recently defined as properties that are estimated to be in the top 5% of their respective metro area.
The country has realized pricing and inventory fluctuations in pockets across price points. For instance, the Hudson Valley area exploded with buyer interest beginning in June, 2020. The pandemic real estate frenzy wasn’t fully realized in Austin, Texas until over six months later in January, 2021, for example. While certain areas in the US remain strong in luxury, luxury is showing signs of impending saturation in Dutchess and Putnam counties. Westchester at this time appears less vulnerable.
The number of listings sold above $1,000,000 decreased to 81 listings versus 124 sales in 2020, 133 sales in 2021 and 121 sales in 2022. The last “normal trending” year of 2019 realized 34 single family detached sales above $1,000,000, per Mid Hudson MLS. The decreased sales in 2023 do not appear due to lack in inventory. 126 listings $1,000,000 and above either expired or withdrew from the market in 2023, per MHMLS. More expired than sold. Currently, there are 74 listings on the market in Dutchess County above $1,000,000 with January notoriously a month marked by low inventory.
The “Pandemic Market” kicked off in March, 2020 with a luxury sale. On March 19, 2020, 124 Martins Lane went into contract. Three days later, non-essential businesses were ordered shutdown in New York State due to Covid. One month later, the estate closed. That property had been on the market for four years prior to Covid. The most recent asking price of $15,000,000 was awaiting a buyer for two years all the way up to Covid. The estate sold for $1,600,000 over asking (multiple buyers) for a sale price of $16,500,000. And so it began.. See 124 Martins Lane. Town of Red Hook. Rhinebeck PO.
Not to be outdone, the neighboring property also sold during Covid. This one sold two years after Martins Lane for $18,500,000 and holds the record for highest sale in Dutchess County on record with Mid Hudson Multiple Listing Service. See Eden Knoll. The Town of Red Hook holds 2 spots in the top 3 in county for highest sale. Town of Washington, Millbrook PO, holds the middle slot with 409 Overlook, which sold in 2011.
MLS listings of top luxury sales by municipality.here,
Top 5 highest sales and other historic records in luxury per the Mid Hudson MLS below.
Latest Review…
“We had an absolutely amazing experience working with Sandi.”
A. Miller
Full review on Google My Business @hudsonvalleynest
Let’s Go Shopping!
I’m spotlighting various towns throughout the Hudson Valley. Rhinebeck and Red Hook were first up. Millerton is in process and quite the interesting town. It’s taking me a while to complete these as I’m really enjoying getting to know the shop owners (it’s about the journey, right?!)
I would be curious to hear what towns you’d like to see spotlighted! Drop me a line.
Take five minutes and get to know these special towns on tour with me!
